From the President's Desk: Great Expectflations

I recently took a Delta Air Lines flight from Indianapolis up to Detroit with a 4 p.m. departure. Delta (our trusted, favorite airline – take it from me, you should do your best to rarely fly any other) has a check-in app with industry-leading detail for customers, and it showed an expected flight time of one hour and 20 minutes – not bad. My wife and I were pleasantly surprised to get on board the aircraft and hear over the PA that the actual flight time would be … 39 minutes?

What were they doing, strapping an extra pair of engines to the aircraft? We thought it was an exaggeration, but lo and behold, after a late departure, we were at our gate at 4:55 p.m. I'd say you could check the actual time of arrival for yourself, but interestingly, this flight’s records appear to have been erased from flight-tracking sites … despite the fact that my wife and I were both on board the aircraft!

So, your first question should be: How in the world are they flying a route where they get somewhere in half the time? For an answer, we should turn to the second question: Why on earth would a major carrier pull down records of a flight that it operated?

Let's look at the first point. Aircraft, those little miracles of physics, are subject to many variables that affect flight time. Route choice, prevailing wind direction and other weather patterns, and aircraft load are among the many factors that play a part in how quickly you get to your destination. And of course, the most obvious factor is how fast they fly. 

Looking at historical maps for DL5846, we can see the route is almost always direct – we’ll be hard-pressed to find a faster path than a direct line. We can examine wind patterns in northern Indiana and southern Michigan on July 25, which do indicate a northwesterly wind flow pattern. But even at aircraft altitudes, the average of these winds was about 35 knots, not quite giving the E175’s average 400-knot speed the boost we need to shave the time in half.

And when it comes to load: While we can’t be certain about the aircraft’s total weight, the IND-DTW flight crew made sure to announce multiple times that overhead bin space would be limited because the aircraft was full, so we can make the assumption the aircraft was not flying unnaturally light. And we know no commercial aircraft is designed to fly at twice its operating speed.

So none of these variables explain the difference in flight time. As Sherlock Holmes might say on seeing a commercial jet: “When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth!” If we go back to our assumptions – we’re assuming that we’re trying to get the actual flight time to align with the published flight time, and there’s no way to stay within the confines of physics and make that happen. So what if the truth is that the published flight time is a lie?

I argue this is supported by the second question above: the removal of the flight data from public records (as of the time of this publication). This removal works heavily in Delta’s favor: Why would an airline share that a flight could be made in 39 minutes if it's telling customers they need to plan on 80? Why set them up with an unrealistic expectation?

My colleague Alex Holtel, founder of Perpetual Impact, likes to say that “quality is perception minus expectation.” If you have a fantastic time somewhere, but you expected to have an amazing time there, your perception of the quality won't be nearly as high as if you had low expectations but were blown away by your experience. Of course, if what you experience does not meet your expectation, your view of the quality is negative. His wisdom makes intuitive sense. 

This is the trick that airlines are pulling, and for good reason. In a world where rideshare customers cancel rides that are eight minutes away instead of five minutes, can’t stand to watch 20-second-long videos but will gladly watch one that is five seconds, and refuse to drive to a grocery store less than five miles from home, the commercial establishment is under extreme expectation pressure. Every time the expectation variable in that equation rises (because it's being subtracted from perception), quality is perceived as lower.

The expectations are getting tighter and tighter. Your streaming service must load instantly. Your emails must leave your inbox the instant you press send. Your Starbucks coffee had better not take more than 60 seconds! This is expectation inflation: What we expect out of something is growing at a pace that's nearly uncontrollable. And Delta’s strategy to fight it: Why not start by lowering the customer's expectations?

In this case, a lower expectation came via claiming a much longer inconvenience than the one the customer will actually experience. This can work in other ways, too. You'll see an online retailer list a “normal sale price,” but the price you're paying today is 73% off! Your package is “expected within five business days” … yet somehow shows up on your doorstep in the morning. You're quoted an inflated travel time, an inflated price, and an inflated delivery duration – all to meet those rising expectations. And to pleasantly surprise you in the event that they're able to over-deliver.

As Delta announced “another on-time arrival” in Detroit, it occurred to me I’d heard this announcement on almost every flight we’ve taken in the last four months. Data actually shows that this “schedule padding” has been on the rise in recent years, and the NYT shows Delta leads the pack. Retailers, vendors, and service providers have noticed the expectation challenge. So what can we learn from this? What if we were to ask ourselves: How can I help calibrate expectations so that I can always under-promise and over-deliver? An easy way to look like a rockstar.

Last weekend, my wife and I got the joy of taking a couple of our kids out for a relaxing Sunday brunch. We put our name in, with an expected wait time of 20 to 25 minutes – totally predictable for a Sunday at noon! We took an eight-minute walk around the block. On our return, we angled for the open bench seats but barely had time to actually sit down before they told us our table was ready! We gleefully sat at our table, now ready for the best brunch of our lives – because, wouldn’t you know it, our expectations had been exceeded. But as our food hit the table, I wasn’t worrying about expectflation. I was just happy for family time and an omelet, which met my expectations just fine!